“If you would have told me 10 years ago we would have more straight-ticket Republicans in this county than Democrats, I’d have said you’re a liar,” said Frank Rush, a Republican radio talk show host who voted for Trump. But it drifted away as the plants closed down, and with it went countless good-paying jobs. Ohio has only voted for a presidential election’s losing candidate twice since 1896. Vigo County, with about 107,000 people on the western edge of Indiana, long had some mysterious mix of quirky politics, demographics, geography, religion, labor and luck so that it had become America’s most reliable presidential bellwether. It has missed only two since 1888: 1952 and 1908. Its population is 60% white and 27% Black. In Australian federal elections, the Division of Robertson in New South Wales became the nation's new longest-running bellwether seat, continuously won by the party that also won government since the 1983 federal election. In addition, state bellwethers Ohio and Florida also chose Trump over Biden. These counties that have been right in EVERY election since 1980 all came to the same conclusion for 19/20 of them that Trump wins in 2020. After Negros Oriental voted for the runner-up in 2016, Basilan's streak that started in 1978 is currently the nation's longest. 2020 election: Northampton County is (so far) living up to presidential bellwether status Steve Novak and Sara K. Satullo, The Express-Times, Easton, Pa 11/5/2020 St. Paul's has only elected three opposition MPs since it was created in 1935. News Analysis?Over the past nearly 40 years, presidential #Elections have observed an intriguing phenomenon: 19 counties in the nation have always voted for the winner. [1] JPMorgan Chase is an example of a bellwether stock. Since democracy was restored in 1977, up to 2019- two provinces have always voted for the winning party (Zaragoza and Huesca). [10], The expression "Som Ljungby röstar röstar Sverige" ("As Ljungby votes, Sweden votes") was coined in the early-1970s, but more recently (2006) voting results in Karlstad, Kalmar and Halmstad more closely resembled the result of the whole nation in elections to the Riksdag. Add to Watchlist. Just In: New Lawsuit in Georgia from Trump Attorney Phillip Kline Targets over 100,000 Illegal Votes, Developing: Happy Kraken-Giving: Sidney Powell To File Major Lawsuit in Georgia Tomorrow Says Lin Wood, Meadows: Nevada judge has agreed to let the Trump campaign present its evidence, Lin Wood “11th Circuit granted my Emergency Motion for Expedited Review of lawsuit challenging validity of GA election procedure”, SCOTUS votes 5-4 against Cuomo restrictions to houses of worship, ACB a decisive vote. Another way to measure how much a state's results reflect the national average is how far the state deviates from the national results. This article is about the concept of a trend indicator. Between the 1981 general election and 2011 general election, Meath and its successors, Meath East and Meath West, have elected a majority of Fianna Fáil TDs in years when Fianna Fáil formed the government, and a majority of Fine Gael and Labour TDs when those parties formed the government. Guam has no electoral college votes, but conducts a presidential straw vote on local election day. If a blue tide sweeps Biden to victory in a state Trump won … 22,568 In a video posted to Twitter on Thursday, Trump 2020 Campaign Senior Advisor for Strategy Steve Cortes took a deep dive into the 2020 election data regarding President Donald Trump’s overwhelmingly dominant performance in the United States’ bellwether counties, adding to the statistical improbability of a Joe Biden electoral victory. Most of those that flipped were by narrow margins. As one of the major banks in the United States, it sets the tone for the rest of the industry. Most prognosticators agree with at least the latter part of Kondik's assessment. There was a bright spot for him in 2020. But for generations its conservative tilt on social issues was balanced by left-leaning idiosyncrasies. Both states lie in the North of the country, neither containing many large industrial cities (the biggest being Kiel and Hannover respectively), nor large rural Catholic populations, the traditional base of the SPD and CDU/CSU respectively. What’s a bellwether? In addition, state bellwethers Ohio and Florida also chose Trump over Biden. The ones in the middle all crumbled, leaving many here wondering whether this was merely a Trump-fueled fluke or whether the country has cleaved itself so firmly into two opposing camps that these old political standard-bearers are obsolete. Both Lindsay and Eden-Monaro lost their bellwether status at the 2016 federal election, both electing Labor MPs, despite a narrow Coalition win nationwide. Bellwethers here can only be measured by the number of candidates from each side elected to Ireland's multiple-seat constituencies that elect an odd number of members. Posted By: Imright, 11/15/2020 12:10:32 AM A post-election analysis of bellwether counties – that is, the 19 counties around the country that have consistently picked the winner of presidential races with … “Ohio, like most states, changes over time, and those changes have political impacts.” Did You Know? It is the birthplace of Eugene V. Debs, a champion for workers’ rights who ran for president as a socialist five times in the early 20th century. Is Vigo County just one more reliably red square in the red middle of America? Oh, the ones you’ve been hearing about for 3 weeks now….GA, PA, MI, WI, MN, NM, AZ. Vigo County in Indiana has chosen the winner correctly since 1956, the Journal pointed out. In Australian federal elections, the Division of Robertson in New South Wales became the nation's new longest-running bellwether seat, continuously won by the party that also won government since the 1983 federal election. A newsreel playing on a loop describes it as “magic town.”. From the first competitive multi-party elections in 1996 on, the Changhua County was the region of Taiwan where the leading presidential candidate became the elected president of the country. Few constituencies are unchanged from one review to another. Both the 1949 and the 1969 elections were rather narrow, the former resulting in a one-vote majority in the election for chancellor and the latter resulting in a 12-seat majority that had broken down due to defections by 1972. The county’s blue-collar workforce was heavily organized and union halls dotted the city. Schleswig-Holstein is also famous for having had several state elections result in a one-seat majority for the winning coalition and Lower Saxony's 1998 election (in which Gerhard Schröder was the SPD candidate) is often seen as a "trial run" for the subsequent federal election (which Schröder also won). Washington state’s Clallam County was the outlier, backing Joe Biden in a state he won by more than 19 points. There are zero states that got 2004, 2012, 2016, and 2020 all correctly. 0. Since the creation of the Federal Republic of Germany (then West Germany) in 1949, the state where the leading party list vote (Zweitstimmen) matched the party of the subsequently chosen Chancellor the most times is Schleswig-Holstein (with two misses: 1969 and 2005), followed by the state of Lower Saxony (with misses in 1949, 1969 and 2005). The states with the current longest streak of voting for the winners in the electoral college are Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin; their streaks only date back to 2008. Now that’s an incredible streak to keep alive and it has to end some time, right? As of 2016, Ohio and Florida are seen by political pundits and national campaigns as the most important swing states due to their large number of electoral votes and political volatility. People are happy that the smell is gone now. It looks like we don't have any Plot Summaries for this title yet. Wood County is a decent bellwether of the state: Mr. Trump carried it by eight points in 2016, matching his statewide margin. An Emerson poll conducted shortly before Election Day was completely off, showing Trump and Biden neck-to-neck. Trending Politics, by Jonathan Davis Original Article. Buckeye State voters have picked the winning candidate in each presidential contest since 1960 – and no Republican has won the White House without winning Ohio. And specifically only in big metropolitan areas in those states. Also, the constituencies of Almond Valley, Dundee City West, Edinburgh Eastern, Glasgow Southside, Kilmarnock and Irvine Valley and Mid Fife and Glenrothes each elected an MSP from the largest party in the 2011 and 2016 elections. The strongest bellwether counties are those which … Trump won in Terre Haute by 15 percentage points, holding his margin of victory in 2016. As the Trump campaign challenges the vote count in battleground states, an analysis by the Wall Street Journal is offering the president an indicator that he isn’t off track in believing he actually won the 2020 election. Vigo County doesn’t look much like America, and its place as its foremost presidential predictor relied on a certain degree of luck, said Matt Bergbower, a political scientist at Indiana State University. Two individual seats, Valsad and West Delhi have successfully voted for the victorious party at the last eleven general elections. Despite their rules, each state has split its electoral votes twice – in 2008, when Nebraska gave 4 votes to Republican John McCain, and one to Democrat Barack Obama, and in 2020, when Nebraska gave 4 votes to Donald Trump and 1 to Joe Biden; in 2016 and 2020, Donald Trump won one vote in Maine, while Hillary Clinton and Joe Biden both were awarded 3, respectively. And that’s why you’re seeing all of these “statistical impossibilities”. Trump won this election on a GRAND scale. The counties that voted in the first round for the winning candidate: Since the 1987 presidential election, the central province of North Chungcheong was the one in which the most voted candidate for the presidency was the national winner. Also, in terms of nationwide two party preferred vote, Eden-Monaro, Lindsay, Robertson and Makin have bucked the bellwether trend in the past by voting Liberal at the 1998 federal election. The following constituencies (as of the 2016 election) have elected MSs from the party which won the plurality of seats in the election overall for every Senedd (and former Assembly) election since 1999: Note that as Labour has won the most seats in every election since the Welsh Assembly was founded in 1999, this is a list of seats which have always voted Labour. “Out of 3,000 counties in […] Election bellwether counties in the United States are counties which vote in alignment with the country as a whole in United States presidential elections, so that the county votes for the candidate who ultimately wins the election. Most of those that flipped were by narrow margins. Showing all 0 items Jump to: Summaries. In the Canadian province of Ontario, Sarnia-Lambton (and its predecessor ridings) voted for the winning party in every federal election from 1963 until 2011. Also of note, from 1996 through 2012, Ohio was within 1.85% of the national popular vote result. In 2020, amid widespread accusations of Democrat cheating, these bellwethers were not even close — checking in at a mind-blowing 6%! [9] Hamilton West and Northcote missed one election each since they were first contested in 1969 and 1996 respectively — the 1993 election for Hamilton West and the 2005 election for Northcote. November 7, 2020. Only 1 of 17 bellwether counties went for Biden this year! JPMorgan Chase also has contracts with companies in other industries, so its performance is reflected in other sectors of the market. It looks like we don't have a Synopsis for this title yet. NSE: Nigerian stocks rise for fifth straight day on bellwether gains Market breadth was significantly positive as 49 equities emerged compared to seven losers. This streak was broken in 2015. Robeson is only the 22nd largest county in the Tar Heel state, one of the poorest, and politically dwarfed by the likes of Mecklenburg … However, it is generally acknowledged that the Democratic candidate tends to have a better chance of winning the presidency without Ohio and Florida. "Candidate Joe Biden was so effective at animating voters in 2020 that he received a record … Because they couldn’t “fix” the data everywhere, only in the key places where they knew they had to cheat to win. Of the 19 bellwether counties that have consistently voted for the presidential winner since 1980, all but one chose Trump, the Journal found, PJ Media reported.’. Be the first to contribute! The American bellwether states can also be determined in different ways (with respect to presidential elections): Highest percentage for varying lengths of time, Highest percentage for a set length of time, Electoral record of the states for presidential elections, 1896–2020:[14], Smallest deviation from the national average. That, my friends, is called “statistically impossible!”, Bellwether counties picked Trump in 2020 election https://t.co/F3yp3R8IFz, — WND News (@worldnetdaily) November 15, 2020, All but one county that had picked every presidential winner since 1980 went for President Trump this year https://t.co/iwIsirhnnd, — Capital Journal (@WSJPolitics) November 14, 2020. Many young people now leave, seeking better jobs in bigger cities. Bellwether definition is - one that takes the lead or initiative : leader; also : an indicator of trends. No region has done so in the first round.[4]. “That’s wrong now. For Connie Willis's book, see, Learn how and when to remove these template messages, Learn how and when to remove this template message, List of election bellwether counties in the United States, Institute of Practitioners in Advertising, "How TCS displaced Infosys as the bellwether of India's IT sector", "Category:Brazilian presidential election maps - Wikimedia Commons", "L'élection présidentielle en France - Politiquemania", "Lok Sabha polls: A look at India's bellwether seats — whoever wins these, wins the election", "With just 7 Lok Sabha seats, Delhi decides who becomes PM", "Will Uttar Pradesh be 'bellwether' or exception again? In politics, a “bellwether” refers to a geographic area whose political beliefs and voting preferences reflect that of a wider area. Bellwether Counties Nearly Wiped Out by 2020 Election All but one county that had chosen every presidential winner since 1980 went for President Trump this year; Washington state’s … The Democratic-leaning ingredients in town diminished, too. This continues the trend that their predecessor constituencies (Livingston, Dundee West, Edinburgh East & Musselburgh, Glasgow Govan, Kilmarnock & Loudoun and Fife Central) achieved in the 1999, 2003 and 2007 elections. For example, a county might be said to be a “bellwether county” if it consistently votes the same way as the majority of the state. Is this the year it turns blue? Tweet on Twitter. In 2020, Vigo went for Trump by nearly 15 points, roughly the same as in 2016. 124. [6], The state of Uttar Pradesh is also seen as a bellwether, with the national government having been formed the majority of times by the party that won the most seats in the state.[7]. Posted on Last updated: May 5, 2020 By: Author taegan. There are four colleges in Terre Haute, a remarkable number for a city its size. Of the 19 counties that had a perfect record between 1980 and 2016, all but one voted to reelect President Donald Trump, who lost to Joe Biden in both the national popular vote and in nearly every battleground state. Synopsis . Logged ∙ ☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└ jfern Atlas Legend Posts: 48,885 Political Matrix E: -7.38, S: -8.36: Re: New bellwether states (under a Biden win) « Reply #4 on: November 05, 2020, 04:04:09 PM » In terms of voting for the popular vote winner, NM is by far the best bellwether state. They are a list of counties in the United States that have accurately predicted the winner of the Presidential Election for decades! The Bellwether State . The Journal also noted that just 2.5% of the nation’s counties flipped from one party in 2016 to the other in 2020. Therefore, true bellwethers are rare. Election bellwether counties in the United States are counties that vote in alignment with the country as a whole in United States presidential elections, so that the county votes for the candidate who ultimately wins the election. The only county that maintained its place as a bellwether is Clallam County, in Washington state. Aragon is, moreover, the sole Autonomous Community to have done so. The “blue wall” refers to 18 states across the northern portion of the U.S. viewed as critical to any Democratic presidential candidate, including Pennsylvania, Michigan and … The Democrat carried the far northwest, rural county by only about 3 points, however. Since the establishment of the French Fifth Republic, the president was elected by popular vote in 1965 up to 2017, five departments have always voted the chosen candidate in the second round: Ardèche, Calvados, Charente-Maritime, Indre-et-Loire and Loire. They had to focus their efforts in 7 key states. [5], Furthermore, the party which wins the majority of seats in Delhi has always gone on to form the national government since 1998. No Republican has won the presidency while losing Ohio, so election results from Ohio are a good indicator of how successful that party's candidate is. Also in Ontario, Peterborough has consistently elected the party which has won the provincial election since 1977. [19] Due to the Electoral College system, a bellwether of sufficient size is often also a focus of national attention and presidential campaigns as a so-called swing state that can decide the election one way or the other. These middle-class communities were in the center and up for grabs. News World Americas US Election 2020 Georgia has been transformed from a deep red state to an election battleground. Similarly, state bellwethers Ohio and Florida also chose Trump over Biden. Hamilton East, first contested in 1972, has missed three elections — 1993, 1999, and 2005. In 2020, all but 1 of the bellwethers picked President Trump. In 2000, the presidential election devolved into a controversial decision in Bush v. Gore which ultimately hinged the contest on a recount of Florida, that – had it gone for Gore – would have swung the Electoral College vote. There are a total of 3,141 counties or county equivalents in the United States. An Indiana State University banner hangs from a light pole on Wabash Avenue in downtown Terre Haute, Ind., on Oct. 20, 2020. Trump gained 10 million more votes in 2020 than he saw in his 2016 election victory, but that pales in comparison to Biden's record gains in defeating the first "incumbent president in nearly a century and a half" who has gained votes in a reelection campaign. Since 1888, this exhibit boasts, the county voted in line with the nation in every presidential election but two. I’m sure you’ve already figured this out, but if not let me spell it out for you. So you end up with a whole lot of things that don’t make any sense. In a video posted to Twitter on Thursday, Trump 2020 Campaign Senior Advisor for Strategy Steve Cortes took a deep dive into the 2020 election data regarding President Donald Trump’s overwhelmingly dominant performance in the United States’ bellwether counties, adding to the statistical improbability of a Joe Biden electoral victory. The Division of Makin in South Australia was a bellwether division from 1984 to 2010, although ceased its bellwether record in 2013, when Makin stayed Labor as the Coalition regained power nationwide. In Alberta, Peace River has elected only three opposition MLAs since the province was founded in 1905. 14 Democrats, Two Republicans File For Ohio's March 17 Primary. The constituencies of Cunninghame North, Stirling and Na h-Eileanan an Iar have all elected MSPs from the party which won the plurality of seats in the election overall for every Scottish Parliament election. Tata Consultancy Services is similarly a bellwether for technology stocks in the Indian markets, BSE and NSE.[2]. Big industrial plants lined the banks of the Wabash River, and the odor of fermentation and chemicals was in the air. But as national politics become less about economics and more about culture wars and identity, Democrats have lost their grip in places such as Vigo County that are overwhelmingly white, he said. Have you heard about “Bellwether Counties”? (Note that following the elections of 2015, a minority government was eventually formed by the second-largest party in the Assembly.). The Autonomous Community of Aragon, where said provinces are located. 25min | Documentary, Short. The states with the least deviation from a two-party presidential vote from 1896 to 2012[15] include: States that were considered bellwether states from the mid-to-late 20th century until the early 21st century include: States that were bellwether states a very long time ago include: In addition, the Territory of Guam has had no misses from 1984 to 2012 (100.0%). Delaware’s Kent County last missed in 1992. So, you’re a smart group if you’re reading WeLoveTrump. What’s more, bellwether states Ohio and Florida also went for Trump. MICHAEL FLYNN TWEETS OUT JEREMIAH 1:19 BEFORE PARDON: ‘THEY WILL FIGHT AGAINST YOU BUT WILL NOT OVERCOME YOU, FOR I AM WITH YOU AND WILL RESCUE YOU,’DECLARES THE LORD. WSJ’s Post-Election Analysis of Bellwether Counties Shows a Clear Presidential Winner and It’s Not Close. Now the places emerging as possible new bellwethers have more racially diverse populations. The term derives from the Middle English bellewether and refers to the practice of placing a bell around the neck of a castrated ram (a wether) leading the flock of sheep. The country’s tribalized politics seem to have finally reached these places that used to routinely swing from one party to the other. Most of those that flipped were by narrow margins. The Journal also noted that just 2.5% of the nation’s counties flipped from one party in 2016 to the other in 2020. In 2018, Senator Sherrod Brown, a … https://t.co/shrKr3z9Bq, — The Epoch Times (@EpochTimes) November 16, 2020, DATA: Trump Won 95% Of Bellwether Counties, Making Biden Win Statistically Improbable (Impossible), ⁦via @NationalFile⁩ https://t.co/q3eYQs4PD2, — TRUMP WON – STOP THE STEAL (@FaithGoldy) November 21, 2020, A glass case in the history museum on the main street through this city celebrates its curious place in American lore: There’s a photo of John F. Kennedy Jr. on the courthouse steps, and Richard Nixon at Terre Haute’s little airport. In New Zealand, there are three generally accepted bellwether electorates: Hamilton East and Hamilton West, both based around the city of Hamilton,[8] and Northcote on Auckland's North Shore. They couldn’t cheat in every single country all across the country. In politics, the term more often applies in a metaphorical sense to describe a geographic region where political tendencies match in microcosm those of a wider area, such that the result of an election in the former region might predict the eventual result in the latter. In the stock market, a bellwether is a stock taken to be a leading indicator of the direction in a sector, an industry or the market as a whole. As industry crumbled, union membership declined. For vice presidential elections, Pangasinan has voted for the winner in all elections save for 1986 and 2016. Ohio has chosen the losing candidate only twice since 1896, voting for Richard Nixon in his razor-thin loss in 1960 and Thomas Dewey in his famous 1944 upset loss to Harry Truman. In every general election to the National Assembly since the restoration of democracy in 1975, the electoral district of Braga has voted for the party or coalition that has won the most seats in the election. By Karen Kasler • Dec … … In Brazilian direct presidential elections, the state of Minas Gerais is where the winning candidate took the lead in the last-round election from 1955 to 2018.[3]. A bellwether is a leader or indicator of trends. Blaine County in Montana, which last missed in 1988, is more than 50% Native American. In the 2020 presidential election, almost all counties which had … One of the few Democrats elected was Dr. Janie Myers, the new coroner and the first Black woman in history to win countywide office … We’re going to have to change that poster,” said Susan Tingley, the executive director of the museum, which is in an old overalls factory that closed long ago, like most of the local factories. All the latest news and updates around the historic US 2020 Election Niven notes these bellwethers were born when political battle lines tended to be drawn more cleanly along economic lines. Just click the "Edit page" button at the bottom of the page or learn more in the Plot Summary submission guide. “The bellwether has been unrung," Mark Weaver, a veteran Republican strategist, says. They were all held by the National Party in the 2017 election although Labour formed the government after the election. ", "Election Resources on the Internet: Elections to the Spanish Congress of Deputies", "Karlstad röstar som Sverige | Forskning & Framsteg | Populärvetenskapligt magasin", "Parliamentary bellwether Nuneaton votes strongly for Leave", "How Delaware Lost its Bellwether Mojo and Joined the Northeast Corridor", "Missouri slips from political bellwether status this fall", "Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections", https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Bellwether&oldid=999406366, Short description is different from Wikidata, Wikipedia articles that are excessively detailed from November 2020, All articles that are excessively detailed, Wikipedia articles with style issues from November 2020, Articles needing additional references from November 2020, All articles needing additional references, Articles that may contain original research from November 2020, All articles that may contain original research, Articles with multiple maintenance issues, Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike License, Ohio – 29 wins out of 32 elections (90.6%), New Mexico – 25 wins out of 28 elections (89.3%), Nevada – 27 wins out of 32 elections (84.4%), This page was last edited on 10 January 2021, at 00:46. 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